Sports Drinks Industry Analysis Essay Example for Free

Sports Drinks Industry Analysis Essay Coconut water is technically a fruit juice, extracted from coconuts. It is a popular refreshing beverage widely consumed in tropical countries, commonly sold fresh by street vendors still in its green shell, and drunk through a straw. Euromonitor Internationals soft drinks data shows that Brazil is currently the worlds largest market for packaged coconut water. Coconut waters success in Brazil indicates that major opportunities exist in other tropical countries where the drink is part of local beverage consumption culture, such as Indonesia, India, Malaysia and Ecuador. At present, virtually all coconut water in such markets is still consumed fresh rather than packaged. However, as these countries packaged food and beverage markets continue to develop in terms of sophistication, consumers will eventually be compelled by the advantages of purchasing their favorite liquid refreshment in an easily portable, convenient and hygienic format to suit consumption occasions in more formal environments. Seeing the marketability and increasing demand for coconut beverage, it gives the proponents an idea to establish this kind of business through feasibility study. Since there is no existing industry of tonic drink in Sultan Kudarat, it will encourage investors to invest in a newly proposed project. G. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE PROJECT COCO DRINK is a natural isotonic beverage that is high in potassium and other electrolytes. Great for any active lifestyle, it is an effective rehydration beverage for before, during or after exercise. COCO DRINK is a milk-like beverage product that was process through spray drying technique that can be reconstituted in hot or cold water. For those unflavored drinks, it has a milky-white color, bland or neutral. It has a smooth mouth feel and safe to drink, with long shelf life and is cheaper than dairy-based milk drinks. COCO DRINK is also available in different blends, such as coco-Choco, coco-ube, coco-pandan, and other natural flavorings. These are available in bottles, cans, and tetra-packs. H. RISK AND MITIGATION RISK MITIGATION Peace and order Coordinate with the Philippine National police in the locality in case unnecessary events will occur. Unavailability of raw materials Seek for other suppliers of raw material to meet the daily demand and to make raw materials available at all times. Theft/ pilferage Built- in Close Circuit Television would be of help in determining fraud in the business. Hire a well oriented and trust worthy employees. Facilities Malfunction Check and maintain the facilities weekly. Purchase a high quality equipment to meet its useful life. Hire qualified and responsible operator. Product spoilage Refrigerate and freeze the product to prevent from spoilage. Pasteurize the coconut water to prolong its shelf life. Fortuitous events such as, earthquake and fire Secure the building and personnel through insurances. Presence of other tonic drinks. Promote the health benefits of COCO DRINK Develop good technical and marketing strategies. Produce high quality products. I. DEFINITION OF TERMS Electrolytes- is a solution that is capable of conducting electricity. (Electrolytes are commonly found in fruit juices, coconut water, sports drinks, milk, and many fruits and vegetables) Rehydration- is defined as the excessive loss of body fluid. Isotonic- Pertains to a solution in the body having the same osmotic pressure. (Sports drinks are sometimes designed in an isotonic way to assist athletes in rehydrating while balancing electrolytes). Pasteurize- is a process of heating a food, which is usually a liquid, to a specific temperature for a predefined length of time and then immediately cooling it after it is removed from the heat. (This process slows spoilage due to microbial growth in the food. ) Chlorinated water- is water added by chlorine and serves as a method of water purification to make it fit for human consumption as drinking water. J. SUMMARY AND FINDINGS A. MARKETING FEASIBILITY Energy drinks market has experienced significant growth in recent years owing to the craze toward high activities. The proposed project will be materialized in the form of quality products. The target customers are local markets through pharmaceutical drug stores, health and food stores, grocery stores, supermarkets and the likes. B. TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY The manufacturing company will operate 8hrs/day at 26 days a month for 12 months. In terms of technology, the company is aided of modernly designed factory equipment to ensure effective and efficient operation. The company is concerned to improve the quality of its product by choosing the right technology to fill in the packaging that cannot be spoiled by weather or other factors. C. FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY Based on the financial assumptions and projections, the project has the capacity to absorb all the expenses even there is a yearly increase in expenses. Moreover, the company has continuous increase in income yearly. D. MANAGEMENT FEASIBILITY The proponents are all capitalist partners. They will both contribute an equal amount of money or property to start the business. The manager will be responsible in establishing management. They will be responsible for the effective and efficient operation. The personnel will be hired based on the qualifications required. E. SOCIO-ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY The establishment of Coconut Tonic Drink will contribute to the economy particularly of Sultan Kudarat. It will encourage investors to venture because it has no existing industry here in the province yet. It will help to generate additional income to the government through taxes. F. CONCLUSION Based on the findings, supported by the financial projections, the establishment of coconut tonic drink is feasible. It is feasible because of the increasing demand of energy drink and nutritious beverages in local market. It will help generate additional employment in the community and improve domestic production by providing market opportunities. G. RECOMMENDATION Based on the assessment and result of the study, the following are recommended: 1. The company should find ways and means to improve the quality of their products to meet the standards and satisfaction of the customers. 2. Manage the risks that may occur in their dealings with competing companies. 3. Other studies should be conducted to determine other processes to prolong the shelf life of the product, without adding chemicals and to preserving its natural flavor. I. INTRODUCTION Coconuts are different from any other fruits because it contains large quantity of water. When immature they are known as tender-nuts or jelly-nuts and may be harvested for drinking. When mature they still contain some water and can be used as seed nuts or processed to give oil from the kernel, charcoal from the hard shell and coir from the fibrous husk. Coconut water has a numerous health benefits associated, including improved digestion, boost immune system against certain infections, and aids in regulating body temperature. These are just few of the many benefits drinking coconut water can provide. Drinking coconut water daily may help to improve skin elasticity, and avoid wrinkling by keeping the skin well hydrated and providing rich nutrients to nourish, making it looking smoother. Coconut water can provide wonderful alternative to some fruit juices and whole milk, since it contains less fat and calories, and no cholesterol. Compared to energy drinks, coconut water contains less sodium, no sugar and more potassium. Through pasteurization, matured coconut water can be processed into tonic drink that is good alternative for electrolytes and milk. Coconut water could be added a mild flavor and commercialize to public. Of all natural beverages from Mother Nature, coconut tonic drink is an ideal drink, aside from water, to quench thirst and provide renewed vitality and energy for our body with all the basic nutrients, protein and vitamins this. II. MANAGEMENT ASPECT A. FORM OF BUSINESS ORGANIZATION The form of ownership is partnership which owned by the proponents namely: Sharmaine Alimajen and Hyaseth Hope Berin. B. ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE C. DUTIES AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF OFFICERS AND KEY PERSONNEL The data for officers and key personnel are shown in the following job classification and its corresponding capabilities. POSITION NO. OF EMPLOYEES REQUIREMENTS RESPONSIBILITIES OWNER 2 Must be 25 years old and above, male/ female. Financially capable of putting up the business. At least Baccalaureate degree holder of BS Business Administration or BS Accountancy. With a strong vision toward the business. Can handle business operation in all aspect. With a good moral character. will act as a financial provider and has a power over his subordinates. MANAGER 1 Age 25 years old and above. With extensive experience in manufacturing company as Production Manager With strong leadership and communication skills. Knowledgeable in production planning and control. will be responsible for managing the day-to-day operations of the company. Making sure that major administrative and technical problems and concerns of the company and its clients should be monitored and addressed accordingly. Determines appropriate staff-management levels and implement strategies to ensure the efficient operation of the department. ACCOUNTANT 1 must at least a Bachelor’s Degree in Accountancy. Must have 2 years accounting work experience. Can work with minimum supervision, organized and possess good working attitude. Report to management regarding the finances of establishment. Analyze business operations, trends, costs, revenues, financial commitments, and obligations, to project future revenues and expenses or to provide advice. Advise management about issues such as resource utilization, tax strategies, and the assumptions underlying budget forecasts. BOOKKEEPER 1 Male / Female 21-30 years old. Must possess at least a Bachelor’s / College Degree, Finance / Accountancy / Banking or equivalent. At least 1-year experience as a Bookkeeper. Knowledgeable in preparing Book Reconciliation.record about the day-to-day financial transaction of the entity. Reports to the manager the financial condition of the business. CASHIER 1 Male/Female, 20-30 years old. Graduate of any four –year Business course preferably in Accounting or Banking Finance. At least 1-2 years experience in same field or clerical work. Have an experience in cashiering, check payments, remittances, reports, and transactions. will be responsible of receiving and disbursing cash. Enter purchases into cash register. Counts money, give change, and issues receipt. Maintain sufficient amounts for change. Calculates Discounts or references. Balances cash drawer and receipts. FACTORY SUPERVISOR 1 At least 2 year(s) of working experience as supervisor. Must possess at least bachelor’s degree in Business studies/ Administration/ Management. Engineering, as the job requires sufficient knowledge in plant mechanics. Control and monitors processes and operations that take place at a plant or factory. FACTORY WORKER 10 Male/ Female Highschool Graduate 18 to 30 years old Preferably have 1 year experience in production work. Willing to work overtime. will be the one to operate the factory equipment, in-charge of packaging and sealing the product. DRIVER. 1 Has a 6 months experience Male not more than 35 years old. At least high school graduate or college level Will drive truck to transport and deliver materials. Maintains telephone contact with base to receive instruction. Keeps record of products transported. Obtains customer signature or collects payments for delivered goods or delivery charges. Assists in loading and unloading truck items. Other task that might be assigned from time to time. SECUTITY GUARDS 2 at least have a 1-year experience as security guard. Male, 25-35 years old. Must possess at least a Vocational Diploma / Short Course Certificate. Willing to work nine shifting hours. whose duty is to keep the area free from espionage and other harmful individuals and attacks. D. LABOR REQUIREMENTS TABLE 2. 1 SCHEDULE TIME POSITION SCHEDULE TIME Monthly Salary Monday- Friday Saturday IN(am) Out(pm) IN(am) Out(pm) Manager 8:00 5:00 8:00 5:00 P 8,060 Accountant Visit only once a week Visit only once a week 4,000 Bookkeeper 8:00 5:00 8:00 5:00 7,280 Cashier 8:00 5:00 8:00 5:00 7,280 Factory Supervisor 7:45 4:45 7:45 4:45 7,800 Factory workers 7:45 4:45 7:45 4:45 7,020 Driver 7:45 4:45 7:45 4:45 7,020 Security guards 8:00. 5:00 8:00 5:00 7,020 Coffee break time will be ten minutes only anytime between: 9:30 A. M. –10:30 A. M. and 2:30 P. M. –3:30 P. M. Lunch break will be between 12:00 NN –1:00 P. M. (Monday to Saturday). E. BUSINESS POLICIES AND REGULATION These will be the formal statement and rules of the projected project to be implemented by the future management. 1. The manager will report all related problems and all project aspect to the management 2. The cashier is required to perform cash count every day and report to the management about receipts and disbursement every month. 3. Manager should report to higher authority major administrative and technical problems and concerns of the company. 4. The bookkeeper should present financial report monthly. 5. Segregation of duties shall be properly observed. 6. The operation shall be monitored regularly. 7. All transaction must be properly authorized and approved by the manager. 8. Information about the project operation shall be held strictly confidential and shall not be divulged to any person, except authorized by the manager. 9. Terms of sale will be on cash basis. In case of receivables, 30 days will be the credit term. 10. Help each employee to obtain his maximum efficiency and effectiveness through a updated training and development program. 11. Treat each employee with fairness and respect. 12. Recognize and reward efficiency, discipline, and dedication to duty and responsibility. F. PROJECT SCHEDULE TABLE 2. 2 TIME TABLE ACTIVITIES MAR APR JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC Planning Building of factory Business permits preparation Canvassing and acquiring of office supplies, furnitures and office and factory equipments Positioning of purchased materials into the building Hiring of employees Negotiate to suppliers Formal start of operation III. MARKETING ASPECT A. INDUSTRY The coconut, popularly known as the â€Å"Tree of Life†, is one of the most important crops in the Philippines. It substantially contributes to the countries yearly income and is a major source of foreign exchange being an export winner. The Philippines remains as the world’s leading supplier of traditional coconut products. In 2010, 3. 56M hectares areas planted to coconut. Forty-eight percent (48%), (1,595,120 ha) of all coconut is planted to Mindanao and is produces fifty-six percent (56%), (8. 1M tons) of the total production. In Region XII alone, production of coconut was up by about 11%. Around 44% of coconut production of the region was in Sarangani Province. Cotabato Province contributed about 20% and Sultan Kudarat and South Cotabato produced about 18% each. Crop Production in region XII. The coconut production growth rate in first quarter is 11. 25% generally. (Source: regional Economic Situitioner-First quarter 2012). B. COMPETITION In Philippines energy drinks market, new entrants do not seem as a strong competitive pressure. The existing soft drink industry is already dominated by experienced dominant players with over century-long experienced. Other energy drinks dominate the industry with their strong brand name and great distribution channels. In addition, the energy drink industry is fully saturated unless the new entrants come with an acceptable differentiation. Despite the previously made optimistic postulation that coconut tonic drink could turn out to be the next Gatorade, there are other impediments still to be hurdled like widespread consumer unfamiliarity. These are the competitors existing: Extra Joss (PT Bintang Toedjoe) Lipovitan ( Taisho Pharmaceutical) Powerade (The Coca-Cola Export Corp) Gatorade (PepsiCo International Inc). Samurai ® energy drink (Coca-Cola Philippines) Cobra (Asia Brewery Inc) C. THREAT OF ENTRY Generally, when industry profits increase, it would be possible for additional firms to enter the market to take advantage of the high profit levels, over the driving profits for all firms in the industry. However, in Philippines energy drink markets, new entrants do not seem as a strong competitive pressure. Experienced dominant players already dominate the existing soft drink industry over century-long experienced. Other energy drinks dominate the industry with their strong brand name and great distribution channels. In addition, the energy industry is fully saturated unless the new entrants come with an acceptable differentiation. As entrants, the proposed project should truly â€Å"somebody† to be able to gain an absolute competitive advantage within this industry. If the product were distinct, there will be no fear of product substitution. Once the proponents gained an absolute advantage within the industry, they should deal with suppliers who may have strong bargaining power over pricing on the ingredients needed. D. MARKET ENVIRONMENT The COCO DRINK will be distributed in leading markets and drugstore all over the Province. E. MARKETING STRATEGIES A. MARKET The manufacturing company will produce a quality healthy drink that can renew vitality and energy for our body with all the wonderful nutrients, protein and vitamins this drink contains. The variety of flavours that COCO DRINK has gives consumers a wide selection of its taste preference. The selling of coconut tonic drink does not limit only within the locality but also to the nearby provinces. Products will directly distribute to supermarkets, grocery stores and health food stores. The selling price is is affordable which can reach by all people especially for low income. People can found COCO DRINK easily. The distribution spreads well until the end users. So that more people can have tonic drink as their energy drinks choice B. CHANNEL OF DISTRIBUTION The proposed business will act as a supplier of coconut tonic drink into local markets. FIGURE 3. 1 CHANNEL OF DISTRIBUTION C. PRICE STUDY In a research conducted, there is no existing industry of coconut tonic drink here in Sultan Kudarat. Since coconut tonic drink is the best alternative for electrolyte drinks, the project had foregone a research in pricing of different energy Drink Company of its products. They are selling with a mark-up of 20% to 35% more than the average factory price of the product. As a strategy, the project will reduce 20% in the price of the product of the existing competitors. F. DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS Total Philippines Energy Drink Sales Volume 2006 – YTD OCT 2009 Source: Nielsen Retail Index FIGURE 3. 2 ENERGY DRINK SALES The geographic scope of the competitive rivalry explains some of the economic features found in the energy drink industry as shown in Figure above. Two major players dominate the sector – Extra Joss ® is the leader of the energy drink Philippines and boasts a market share of around 68%, followed by Cobra at about 18% in 2008. As we can see in the figure above, the portrait of energy drinks lifecycle have high demand. Overall, energy drinks category only accounts for 0. 5% of the Total Philippines Beverage industry. IV. TECHNICAL ASPECT A. PRODUCT The main product of SHASETH manufacturing company is a coconut tonic drink, coconut juice extracted from a mature coconut, process, and add some flavours to prolong its shelf life. The product will be available in three kinds of packaging: bottle, can, and tetra pack. The said product is process in two different ways: flavours, and unflavoured. This tonic drink is packed full of electrolytes as potassium, magnesium, calcium and phosphorus, affording its naturally isotonic composition. Hence, it has the potential to pull in a completely new audience, such as health-conscious women who have previously shied away from conventional sports drinks. It is a natural tonic or high-energy drink, a good alternative for electrolytes. This product is also good for infants, since the percentage of arginine, alanine, cysteine and serene in the protein of coconut water is higher than those of cow’s milk. Mature Coconut Water Tender Coconut Water Total solids% 5. 4 6. 5 Reducing sugars % 0. 2 4. 4 Minerals % 0. 5 0. 6 Protein % 0. 1 0. 01 Fat % 0. 1 0. 01 Acidity mg % 60. 0 120. 0 pH 5. 2 4. 5 Potassium mg% 247. 0 290. 0 Sodium mg% 48. 0 42. 0 Calcium mg% 40. 0 44. 0 Magnesium mg % 15. 0 10. 0 Phosphorous mg% 6. 3 9. 2 Iron mg% 79. 0 106. 0 Copper mg% 26. 0 26. 0 Source: SatyavatiKrishnankutty (1987) Recommended Nutrient B. MANUFACTURING PROCESS. A product facility was set-up and operated in a semi-commercial scale with the following general specifications: Capacity: Medium scale operation (approximately 500 nuts/day) Expected yield: Approximately 50kg. instant coconut skim milk per day. Starting process for instant (mature) coconut beverage FIGURE 4. 1 MANUFACTURING PROCESS Mature coconut beverage is process through medium scale operation. It needs the mature stage of a coconut (approximately 500 nuts per day), soak, and wash it in chlorinated water (200 ppm). De-shell, pare, and disintegrate coconut meat and coconut juice. Extract and separate the cream. Collect CSM (heating to 90C to coagulate the proteins) decanting whey to concentrate the protein coagulum. Add back some of the cream, centrifuge solids, premixed encapsulating agent, bulking agent, and other required ingredients. Blend, filter, and homogenize using high pressure to reduce fat sizes. Place in a holding tanks and feed in a pre-heated spray dryer stabilized at 150-180+/-5? C. Spray dry at 150? -180C inlet, 70-95? C outlet, with feed rate of 30-50 ml/min. Air-cool to room temperature. Add premixed flavouring, sweetener and other ingredients, dried fruit bits etc. , vitamin mineral blends. Dry mix, pack, seal and label. Store in a cool and dry place. (Source: Department of Science and Technology) C. LOCATION AND AREA The proposed project is located at Barangay Obial, Kalamansig, Sultan Kudarat, portion of lot 437, pls-50, Title no. T-15843 port. That is near to the coconut federation, which is located at lot 472, pls-504, to sustain the daily capacity of nuts needed for manufacturing. The building that consists of factory and office has an area of 200 square meters within the total land area of 400 square meters. The distance of the manufacturing company is 150 meters away from the coconut plantation. D. FACTORY EQUIPMENTS TABLE 4. 1 FACTORY EQUIPMENTS DEPRECIATION Equipments Quantity Acquisition cost Useful life (Years) Annual depreciation Desheller 1 P 63,000 15 P 3,780 Disintegrator 1 126,000 15 7,560 Screw press 1 21,000 15 1,260 Centrifuge 1 63,000 15 3,780 Homogenizer 1 84,000 15 5,040 Holding, Blending and Balance tanks 1 277,200 15 16,632 Spray dryer 1 210,000 15 12,600 Tumble 1 67,200 15 4,032 Ribbon mixer 67,200 15 4,032 Form-fill-seal machine 1 105,000 15 6,300 Walk-in-freezer 1 252,000 15 15,120 Upright refrigerator 1 50,400 15 3,024 TOTAL 11 P 1,386,000 P 83,160 Note: Factory equipment has a salvage value of 10% of its acquisition cost. Factory equipment must be reacquired after 15 years and unit cost is projected to increase by 5%. E. OFFICE EQUIPMENT AND FURNITURES TABLE 4. 2 OFFICE AND FURNITURE DEPRECIATION Office equipment furniture Quantity Acquisition cost Useful life (years) Annual depreciation Computer 1 P 20,000 10 P 2,000 Printer 1 3,500 10 350 Aircon 1 16,700 10 1,670 Table 2 2,000 10 200 Office chairs 2 1,500 10 150 Plastic chairs 2 300 10 30 Cabinet 1 6,000 10 600 TOTAL P 50,000 P 5,000 Note: Office equipments and furniture must be reacquired after 10 years and unit cost is projected to increased 5% per annum. F. OFFICE SUPPLIES. Office supplies Qty. / year Price Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Computer ink 24 P 150 P 3,600 P 4,680 P6,084 P 7,909. 2 P 10,282 Calculator 3 125 375 487. 5 633. 75 824 1,071 Puncher 3 70 210 273 354. 9 461 600 Fastener 2boxes 50 100 130 169 220 286 Ball pen 2 boxes 150 300 390 507 659 857 Bond paper 18rims 200 3,600 4,680 6,084 7,909 10,282 Scissor 10 15 150 195 253. 5 330 428 Scotch tape 30 15 450 585 760. 5 989 1,285 Pencil 2 boxes 32. 50 65 84. 5 109. 85 142. 80 186 Carbon paper 6 rims 145 870 1,131 1,470. 3 1,911 2,484 stapler 4 70 280 364 473. 2 615 799 TOTAL P 10,000 P 13,000 P 16,900 P21,970. P28,561 Note: Office supplies will be acquired every year. Unit cost will increase 3% per annum. TABLE 4. 3 G. PLAN LOCATION AND FLOOR PLAN The manufacturing company is placed at the portion of lot 473 with area of 400 square meters located at Barangay Obial, Kalamansig. V. SOCIO-ECONOMIC DESIRABILITY OF THE BUSINESS The proposed project carried cheep is the development of socio economic sector particularly here in Sultan Kudarat. 1. Establishment of this business will help to generate additional employment in the community. 2. It will improve domestic production by providing market opportunities. 3. It will generate additional income to the government through taxes. 4. It will raise additional income to the coconut growers in the municipality. 5. It will provide additional revenue to the province and it will help to improve the said municipality. SUMMARY OF THE FINDINGS, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOMMENDATION A. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS Based on the assessment and result of the study made by the proponents, establishment of coconut tonic drink in Obial, Kalamnsig is feasible. The proponents prove that the place where proposed project is located is the best source of coconut tonic drink due to wide plantation of coconut. B. CONLUSION After considering the different aspects in conducting this feasibility study, the proponents found out that the establishment of coconut tonic drink in Kalansig is feasible. It is because of the increasing demand of energy drink and nutritious beverages in local market. C. RECOMMENDATION After assessing the result of the study, the following are highly recommended: 1. The company should find ways and means to improve the quality of their products to meet the standards and satisfaction of the customers. 2. It should manage the risk that may occur in their dealings with competing companies. 3. Further studies should be conducted to determine other process to prolong the shelf life of the product without adding chemicals on it and to preserve its natural flavour. 4. Product should undergo laboratory test to make sure that it will pass the quality food standard. 5. Proper sanitation must highly observe. VI. FINANCIAL ASPECT A. UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS These assumptions are the basis in computing the financial projections. 1. Sales will increased by 6% per annum. 2. Purchases will increase by 3% annually. 3. Operating expense except for depreciation and legal fees will increase by 3% per annum. 4. Trade receivables at the end of the year are 30% of the year’s sales. 5. Assumed that the target markets are local health food stores, supermarkets, and grocery stores. 6. Project cost is P 4,107,938 with bank financing of 75% payable within 5 years with 8% interest rate and based on diminishing balance. 7. Finished goods inventory at the end of period will be 5% of goods available for sale. 8. Operating hours per day is 8 hours for 26 days monthly. 9. Depreciation expense will be based on straight line method. (see exhibit D) 10. Sales schedule 11. Salary is composed of their respective salary, SSS, and other benefits. It is assumed that SSS and other benefits is 20% of their salary. 12. Withdrawal is 30% of year’s net income starting 2nd year. 13. Income tax provision is 30% of income before tax. B. BALANCE SHEET PROJECTIONS C. INCOME STATEMENT PROJECTIONS D. CASHFLOW PROJECTIONS E. FINANCIAL SUMMARY F. PRODUCTION/OPERATING REQUIREMENTS The SHASETH manufacturing company will operate at Barangay Obial, Kalamansig, Sultan Kudarat. In operating the business, it will require a capital of P 4,107,938 that will be used at the start of operation to fund the purchase of goods and other necessary materials needed to manufacture the coconut tonic drink. Also included to the capital required are the cost of 400 square meter land and 200 square meter building. The factory equipment that has been purchased has a capacity of working 500 nuts a day. G. SUPPORTING SCHEDULE VI. SOCIO ECONOMIC DIVERSITY OF THE PROJECT REFERENCES: Sources and Cites Alibaba. com Google. com Wikipedia. com Organizations/Local Government Department of Trade and Industry Department of Science and Technology Sultan Kudarat Provincial Assessor’s Office Others Regional Economic Situitioner Nielsen Retail Index SatyavatiKrishnankutty We have noticed an increasing number of businesses catering to the recent rise of a new target market: the health-conscious consumer. At Nike, our goal has always been to give consumers what they want now, as well as to anticipate their future tastes, and to thus tailor our strategy to accommodate those tastes. We have recognized an unfilled market potential in the non-carbonated energizing sports drink arena, thus developing an entirely new product category. Our branding strategy is to enter the market by carving a new niche of protein-enriched energizing sports drinks. Our objective is to educate consumers about the new drink, as well as to make a profit and gain market share in the industry. We hope that by being market leaders, our name will become synonymous with the new drink category, and will aid in our sustaining a competitive advantage over the copy-cats that are sure to flock the market after the new products’ introduction and subsequent success. Our primary target market is 18-34 year old females who will use our sports drink whenever they needed a boost: at work, in the gym, or just when they felt like it. The secondary target market is 18-34 year old males who fall into much the same socio-cultural and economic category as the primary target market. The Nike Motion energy drink will be positioned as a high-end item, costing $2 per environmentally-friendly can. It will come in a variety of fruit flavors and will boast the replenishment of electrolytes and other essential vitamins and minerals. We hope that high-frequency mass market penetration using multi-media advertisements will spread the word and raise awareness about Nike Motion. National distribution will follow in supermarkets, pharmacies, health food stores, and gourmet retailers. The Nike brand name, accompanied by its strong brand image, will differentiate the product and maintain its popularity via the market leader and differentiation strategy the company has chosen. [2. 0] Environmental Analysis Economic Trends: The X and Y generations, our target markets, comprise about 110 million people of the United States population. They are, generally speaking, well-educated, and earn relatively higher incomes, thus allowing for much of their disposable income to be spent on health-oriented products, such as the new beverage we are planning to launch, Nike Motion. Neither positive, nor negative economic trends, such as changes in interest rates, inflation, DGP, etc. are not likely to have a significant impact on our product, since it’s not a high priced luxury item whose demand would be affected by theses factors. The quality of sports drinks consumed doesn’t really depend on the income of the consumers, since these are relatively inexpensive, everyday products. As a general trend however it is worth mentioning that the economy as a whole is growing in the United States as well as in other parts of the world, allowing for an ever increasing standa.

Lazy, Decision Tree classifier and Multilayer Perceptron

Lazy, Decision Tree classifier and Multilayer Perceptron Performance Evaluation of Lazy, Decision Tree classifier and Multilayer Perceptron on Traffic Accident Analysis Abstract. Traffic and road accident are a big issue in every country. Road accident influence on many things such as property damage, different injury level as well as a large amount of death. Data science has such capability to assist us to analyze different factors behind traffic and road accident such as weather, road, time etc. In this paper, we proposed different clustering and classification techniques to analyze data. We implemented different classification techniques such as Decision Tree, Lazy classifier, and Multilayer perceptron classifier to classify dataset based on casualty class as well as clustering techniques which are k-means and Hierarchical clustering techniques to cluster dataset. Firstly we analyzed dataset by using these classifiers and we achieved accuracy at some level and later, we applied clustering techniques and then applied classification techniques on that clustered data. Our accuracy level increased at some level by using clustering techniques on datas et compared to a dataset which was classified without clustering. Keywords: Decision tree, Lazy classifier, Multilayer perceptron, K-means, Hierarchical clustering INTRODUCTION Traffic and road accident are one of the important problem across the world. Diminishing accident ratio is most effective way to improve traffic safety. There are many type of research has been done in many countries in traffic accident analysis by using different type of data mining techniques. Many researcher proposed their work in order to reduce the accident ratio by identifying risk factors which particularly impact in the accident [1-5]. There are also different techniques used to analyze traffic accident but its stated that data mining technique is more advance technique and shown better results as compared to statistical analysis. However, both methods provide appreciable outcome which is helpful to reduce accident ratio [6-13, 28, 29]. From the experimental point of view, mostly studies tried to find out the risk factors which affect the severity levels. Among most of studies explained that drinking alcoholic beverage and driving influenced more in accident [14]. It identified that drinking alcoholic beverage and driving seriously increase the accident ratio. There are various studies which have focused on restraint devices like helmet, seat belts influence the severity level of accident and if these devices would have been used to accident ratio had decreased at certain level [15]. In addition, few studies have focused on identifying the group of drivers who are mostly involved in accident. Elderly drivers whose age are more than 60 years, they are identified mostly in road accident [16]. Many studies provided different level of risk factors which influenced more in severity level of accident. Lee C [17] stated that statistical approaches were good option to analyze the relation between in various risk factors and accident. Although, Chen and Jovanis [18] identified that there are some problem like large contingency table during analyzing big dimensional dataset by using statistical techniques. As well as statistical approach also have their own violation and assumption which can bring some error results [30-33]. Because of these limitation in statistical approach, Data techniques came into existence to analyze data of road accident. Data mining often called as knowledge or data discovery. This is set of techniques to achieve hidden information from large amount of data. It is shown that there are many implementation of data mining in transportation system like pavement analysis, roughness analysis of road and road accident analysis. Data mining techniques has been the most widely used techniques in field like agriculture, medical, transportation, business, industries, engineering and many other scientific fields [21-23]. There are many diverse data mining methodologies such as classification, association rules and clustering has been extensivally used for analyzing dataset of road accident [19-20]. Geurts K [24] analyzed dataset by using association rule mining to know the different factors that happens at very high frequency road accident areas on Belgium road. Depaire [25] analyzed dataset of road accident in Belgium by using different clustering techniques and stated that clustered based data can extract better information as compared without clustered data. Kwon analyzed dataset by using Decision Tree and NB classifiers to factors which is affecting more in road accident. Kashani [27] analyzed dataset by using classification and regression algorithm to analyze accident ratio in Iran and achieved that there a re factors such as wrong overtaking, not using seat belts, and badly speeding affected the severity level of accident. METHODOLOGY This research work focus on casualty class based classification of road accident. The paper describe the k-means and Hierarchical clustering techniques for cluster analysis. Moreover, Decision Tree, Lazy classifier and Multilayer perceptron used in this paper to classify the accident data. Clustering Techniques Hierarchical Clustering Hierarchical clustering is also known as HCS (Hierarchical cluster analysis). It is unsupervised clustering techniques which attempt to make clusters hierarchy. It is divided into two categories which are Divisive and Agglomerative clustering. Divisive Clustering: In this clustering technique, we allocate all of the inspection to one cluster and later, partition that single cluster into two similar clusters. Finally, we continue repeatedly on every cluster till there would be one cluster for every inspection. Agglomerative method: It is bottom up approach. We allocate every inspection to their own cluster. Later, evaluate the distance between every clusters and then amalgamate the most two similar clusters. Repeat steps second and third until there could be one cluster left. The algorithm is given below   Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚   X set A of objects {a1, a2,à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦an}   Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚   Distance function is d1 and d2   Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚   For j=1 to n   Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚   dj={aj}   Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚   end for   Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚   D= {d1, d2,à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦..dn}   Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚   Y=n+1   Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚   while D.size>1 do -(dmin1, dmin2)=minimum distance (dj, dk) for all dj, dk in all D -Delete dmin1 and   dmin2   from D -Add (dmin1, dmin2) to D -Y=Y+1   Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚   end while K-modes clustering Clustering is an data mining technique which use unsupervised learning, whose major aim is to categorize the data features into a distinct type of clusters in such a way that features inside a group are more alike than the features in different clusters. K-means technique is an extensively used clustering technique for large numerical data analysis. In this, the dataset is grouped into k-clusters. There are diverse clustering techniques available but the assortment of appropriate clustering algorithm rely on the nature and type of data. Our major objective of this work is to differentiate the accident places on their frequency occurrence. Lets assume thatX and Y is a matrix of m by n matrix of categorical data. The straightforward closeness coordinating measure amongst X and Y is the quantity of coordinating quality estimations of the two values. The more noteworthy the quantity of matches is more the comparability of two items. K-modes algorithm can be explained as:   Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚   d (Xi,Yi)=   Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚   (1)   Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚   Where   Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚   - (2) Classification Techniques Lazy Classifier Lazy classifier save the training instances and do no genuine work until classification time. Lazy classifier is a learning strategy in which speculation past the preparation information is postponed until a question is made to the framework where the framework tries to sum up the training data before getting queries. The main advantage of utilizing a lazy classification strategy is that the objective scope will be exacted locally, for example, in the k-nearest neighbor. Since the target capacity is approximated locally for each question to the framework, lazy classifier frameworks can simultaneously take care of various issues and arrangement effectively with changes in the issue field. The burdens with lazy classifier incorporate the extensive space necessity to store the total preparing dataset. For the most part boisterous preparing information expands the case bolster pointlessly, in light of the fact that no idea is made amid the preparation stage and another detriment is that lazy classification strategies are generally slower to assess, however this is joined with a quicker preparing stage. K Star The K star can be characterized as a strategy for cluster examination which fundamentally goes for the partition of n perception into k-clusters, where every perception has a location with the group to the closest mean. We can depict K star as an occurrence based learner which utilizes entropy as a separation measure. The advantages are that it gives a predictable way to deal with treatment of genuine esteemed attributes, typical attributes and missing attributes. K star is a basic, instance based classifier, like K Nearest Neighbor (K-NN). New data instance, x, are doled out to the class that happens most every now and again among the k closest information focuses, yj, where j = 1, 2à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦ k. Entropic separation is then used to recover the most comparable occasions from the informational index. By method for entropic remove as a metric has a number of advantages including treatment of genuine esteemed qualities and missing qualities. The K star function can be ascertained a s: K*(yi, x)=-ln P*(yi, x) Where P* is the likelihood of all transformational means from instance x to y. It can be valuable to comprehend this as the likelihood that x will touch base at y by means of an arbitrary stroll in IC highlight space. It will performed streamlining over the percent mixing proportion parameter which is closely resembling K-NN sphere of influence, before appraisal with other Machine Learning strategies. IBK (K Nearest Neighbor) Its a k-closest neighbor classifier technique that utilize a similar separation metric. The quantity of closest neighbors may be illustrated unequivocally in the object editor or determined consequently utilizing blow one cross-approval center to a maximum point of confinement provided by the predetermined esteem. IBK is the knearest-neighbor classifier. A sort of divorce pursuit calculations might be used to quicken the errand of identifying the closest neighbors. A direct inquiry is the default yet promote decision blend ball trees, KD-trees, thus called cover trees. The dissolution work used is a parameter of the inquiry strategy. The rest of the thing is alike one the basis of IBL-which is called Euclidean separation; different alternatives blend Chebyshev, Manhattan, and Minkowski separations. Forecasts higher than one neighbor may be weighted by their distance from the test occurrence and two unique equations are implemented for altering over the distance into a weight. The qua ntity of preparing occasions kept by the classifier can be limited by setting the window estimate choice. As new preparing occasions are included, the most seasoned ones are segregated to keep up the quantity of preparing cases at this size. Decision Tree Random decision forests or random forest are a package learning techniques for regression, classification and other tasks, that perform by building a legion of decision trees at training time and resulting the class which would be the mode of the mean prediction (regression) or classes (classification) of the separate trees. Random decision forests good for decision trees routime of overfitting to their training set. In different calculations, the classification is executed recursively till each and every leaf is clean or pure, that is the order of the data ought to be as impeccable as would be prudent. The goal is dynamically speculation of a choice tree until it picks up the balance of adaptability and exactness. This technique utilized the Entropy that is the computation of disorder data. Here Entropy is measured by:   Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚   Entropy () =   Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚   Entropy () = Hence so total gain = Entropy () Entropy () Here the goal is to increase the total gain by dividing total entropy because of diverging arguments by value i. Multilayer Perceptron An MLP might be observed as a logistic regression classifier in which input data is firstly altered utilizing a non-linear transformation. This alteration deal the input dataset into space, and the place where this turn into linearly separable. This layer as an intermediate layer is known as a hidden layer. One hidden layer is enough to create MLPs. Formally, a single hidden layer Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) is a function of f: YIà ¢Ã¢â‚¬  Ã¢â‚¬â„¢YO, where I would be the input size vector x and O is the size of output vector f(x), such that, in matrix notation   Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚   F(x) = g(ÃŽÂ ¸(2)+W(2)(s(ÃŽÂ ¸(1)+W(1)x))) DESCRIPTION OF DATASET The traffic accident data is obtained from online data source for Leeds UK [8]. This data set comprises 13062 accident which happened since last 5 years from 2011 to 2015. After carefully analyzed this data, there are 11 attributes discovered for this study. The dataset consist attributes which are Number of vehicles, time, road surface, weather conditions, lightening conditions, casualty class, sex of casualty, age, type of vehicle, day and month and these attributes have different features like casualty class has driver, pedestrian, passenger as well as same with other attributes with having different features which was given in data set. These data are shown briefly in table 2 ACCURACY MEASUREMENT The accuracy is defined by different classifiers of provided dataset and that is achieved a percentage of dataset tuples which is classified precisely by help of different classifiers. The confusion matrix is also called as error matrix which is just layout table that enables to visualize the behavior of an algorithm. Here confusing matrix provides also an important role to achieve the efficiency of different classifiers.   There are two class labels given and each cell consist prediction by a classifier which comes into that cell. Table 1 Confusion Matrix   Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚   Correct Labels Negative Positive Negative TN (True negative) FN (False negative) Positive FP (False positive) TP (True positive) Now, there are many factors like Accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, error rate, precision, f-measures, recall and so on. TPR (Accuracy or True Positive Rate) = FPR (False Positive Rate) = Precision = Sensitivity = And there are also other factors which can find out to classify the dataset correctly. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Table 2 describe all the attributes available in the road accident dataset. There are 11 attributes mentioned and their code, values, total and other factors included. We divided total accident value on the basis of casualty class which is Driver, Passenger, and Pedestrian by the help of SQL. Table 2 S.NO. Attribute Code Value Total   Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚   Casualty Class Driver Passenger Pedestrian 1. No. of vehicles 1 1 vehicle 3334 763 817 753 2 2 vehicle 7991 5676 2215 99 3+ >3 vehicle 5214 1218 510 10 2. Time T1 [0-4] 630 269 250 110 T2 [4-8] 903 698 133 71 T3 [6-12] 2720 1701 644 374 T4 [12-16] 3342 1812 1027 502 T5 [16-20] 3976 2387 990 598 T6 [20-24] 1496 790 498 207 3. Road Surface OTR Other 106 62 30 13 DR Dry 9828 5687 2695 1445 WT Wet 3063 1858 803 401 SNW Snow 157 101 39 16 FLD Flood 17 11 5 0 4. Lightening Condition DLGT Day Light 9020 5422 2348 1249 NLGT No Light 1446 858 389 198 SLGT Street Light 2598 1377 805 415 5. Weather Condition CLR Clear 11584 6770 3140 1666 FG Fog 37 26 7 3 SNY Snowy 63 41 15 6 RNY Rainy 1276 751 350 174 6. Casualty Class DR Driver PSG Passenger PDT Pedestrian 7. Sex of Casualty M Male 7758 5223 1460 1074 F Female 5305 2434 2082 788 8. Age Minor 1976 454 855 667 Youth 18-30 years 4267 2646 1158 462 Adult 30-60 years 4254 3152 742 359 Senior >60 years 2567 1405 787 374 9. Type of Vehicle BS Bus 842 52 687 102 CR Car 9208 4959 2692 1556 GDV GoodsVehicle 449 245 86 117 BCL Bicycle 1512 1476 11 24 PTV PTWW 977 876 48 52 OTR Other 79 49 18 11 10. Day WKD Weekday 9884 5980 2499 1404 WND Weekend 3179 1677 1043 458 11. Month Q1 Jan-March 3017 1731 803 482 Q2 April-June 3220 1887 907 425 Q3 July-September 3376 2021 948 406 Q4 Oct-December 3452 2018 884 549 Direct Classification Analysis We utilized different approaches to classify this bunch of dataset on the basis of casualty class. We used classifier which are Decision Tree, Lazy classifier and Multilayer perceptron. We attained some result to few level as shown in table 3 Table 3 Classifiers Accuracy Lazy classifier(K-Star) 67.7324% Lazy classifier (IBK) 68.5634% Decision Tree 70.7566% Multilayer perceptron 69.3031% We achieved some results to this given level by using these three approaches and then later we utilized different clustering techniques which are Hierarchical clustering and K-modes. Figure 1   Direct classified Accuracy Analysis by using clustering techniques In this analysis, we utilized two clustering techniques which are Hierarchical and K-modes techniques, Later we divided dataset into 9 clusters. We achieved better results by using Hierarchical as compared to K-modes techniques. Lazy Classifier Output K Star: In this, our classified result increased from 67.7324 % to 82.352%. Its sharp improvement in result after clustering. Table 4 TP Rate FP Rate Precision Recall F-Measure MCC ROC Area PRC Area Class 0.956 0.320 0.809 0.956 0.876 0.679 0.928 0.947 Driver 0.529 0.029 0.873 0.529 0.659 0.600 0.917 0.824 Passenger 0.839 0.027 0.837 0.839 0.838 0.811 0.981 0.906 Pedestrian IBK: In this, our classified result increased from 68.5634% to 84.4729%. Its sharp improvement in result after clustering. Table 5 TP Rate FP Rate Precision Recall F-Measure MCC ROC Area PRC Area Class 0.945 0.254 0.840 0.945 0.890 0.717 0.950 0.964 Driver 0.644 0.048 0.833 0.644 0.726 0.651 0.940 0.867 Passenger 0.816 0.018 0.884 0.816 0.849 0.826 0.990 0.946 Pedestrian Decision Tree Output In this study, we used Decision Tree classifier which improved the accuracy better than ear

The roles of pride and prejudice in Pride and Prejudice Essay -- Jane

Becoming an immediate success in the contemporary novel public in early nineteenth century, Pride and Prejudice has proved to be the most popular of Jane Austen's novels and remains a classic masterpiece two centuries later. The title itself describes the underlying theme of the book. Pride and prejudice, intimately related in the novel, serve as challenges to the cherished love story of Darcy and Elizabeth. It is interesting to see how these two nice people were blinded before realizing that they are an ideal couple. Material for situations, characters and themes in Jane Austen?s novels are founded in her own surroundings ? countryside, parishes, neighborhood. Although written in her early twenties, Pride and Prejudice reflects Austen?s thorough understandings of her society on the matters of money, marriage, behaviors and love. Let us look at the general ideas of what pride is and what prejudice is. Pride is a strong sense of self-respect, rather is to think of oneself higher than anyone and everyone else and prejudice is a partiality that prevents objective consideration of an issue or situation. The novel was originally entitled First Impressions, which significantly contributes to the love story of Darcy and Elizabeth the way it goes. Pride and prejudice in the novel are all based upon the first impressions the two characters got from each other. Darcy, a quiet and rather cold noble man with large estates, is too proud of his position to pay attention to Elizabeth who is of poor social status while Elizabeth, a lively, pretty and clever girl, has prejudice against Darcy?s proud behaviors. It is in their first meeting pride and prejudice have shaped their relationship as it goes on later. Contrary to his wish, Darcy fa... ...hen Darcy puts aside his vanity to pursue his treasured love and Elizabeth is no longer too prejudiced to understand his feelings and behaviours, they are perfectly matched. I believe that they would share a happy life together, because their love comes from the appreciation of dignity, not money nor social position nor anything else of material values. Darcy and Elizabeth?s love seems to imply that Jane Austen views love as something independent from social conventions. There are nothing so powerful difficulties to their relationship as their own pride and prejudice. Once these internal obstacles fade away, they obviously become an ideal couple. They are equal in intellect, have attraction and tender love for each other, empathy and romance. With the central characters? beautiful love, Jane Austen suggests that you should only marry someone who is your soulmate.

Teaching Philosophy Statement :: Education Teachers Classroom Essays

Teaching Philosophy Statement â€Å"I touch the future. I teach.† Christa McAuliffe’s statement about touching the future is how I feel about teaching. Being passionate about teaching and wanting to help and inspire the youth of America is my philosophy. Teaching is not always thought of as the noblest career choice, but in my eyes it is. Without the inspiration of good teachers there would be no doctor, lawyers or other teachers. I agonized over the decision of what career path to take, but it all became so clear my senior year of high school. I thought of all the teachers who had inspired me in years past to do my best and not to give up, and that is when I decided I wanted to be a teacher. There were a few teachers that made me feel they really cared about my education and my future. That is the kind of teacher I strive to be. I hope I can inspire my students to do something great with their lives. Although I was happy with my decision everyone I told thought I was crazy to want to purs ue such a â€Å"thankless job† as they called it. I saw it in another light though; teaching is something I knew would be right for me. Teachers have the ideal work schedule I think. I may have some paper work to do or school functions to attend, but this job will allow me to spend time with my family. If I decided to have children this would allow me to have the quality time I want to spend with them also. Overall the positive aspects of teaching greatly out weigh the negative ones from my point of view. My major is physical education and health, which will allow me to teach something I am passionate about; physical fitness. I believe for a student to be well balance they have to feel good and feel good about themselves. In today’s society of video games and computers children are leading more and more sedentary lifestyles. As a P.E. teacher I hope to change that and teach kids healthy habits for long-term fitness. As part of the â€Å"New P.E.† generation I think the skill-based learning with be more effective than simply just letting kids play games that they don’t have the skill for.

Leadership Essay -- Leader Leadership

Leadership There are at least two things you can say about leadership without sounding stupid or exaggerating, 1) Leaders are important, and secondly 2) There is always a leadership crisis of one kind or another, at any given time; e.g. shortage or incompetence, evil, crooked, inadequate, you name it. As simplistic as these statements may sound, they are paramount to any study or discussion of leadership and its effectiveness. In this paper, I would like to elaborate upon some qualities of a good leader, the relationship between leaders and the followers, the difference between a leader and a manager, between leadership and authority, and finally touch upon the possible evils and misuse of power and leadership positions. We have all heard that leaders are born and not made. I do not agree with this statement in the least. While some leadership qualities are innate to all people, the most notable leaders are churned out after years of experience and practice of certain skill-sets. Effective leaders are rare. They are created through the trials and tribulations of managing or working with people in a variety of settings. Most good leaders have had their fair share of hard knocks that awakened them to the greater potential within their scope of influence. Effective leaders are excellent communicators, able to speak the many languages of the individuals within the groups they lead. A good leader pays attention to the facts and then makes decisions based on objective analysis of those facts. Effective leaders naturally motive people from their actions, which include showing respect, listening, reflecting, and negotiating through conflict. Leaders encourage and empower people to achieve success rather than place blame. Leaders ... ...isuse power because those with power feel morally superior. There is one school of thought that believes that power corrupts slowly and gradually, while some others believe that those who misuse their position, do so in bold strikes. Leaders inherently have power and influence over their followers. There have been instances in history where leaders are granted god-like status, with absolute right to making judgments. This is true even in some cases in today's world vis-Ã  -vis national and religious leaders of major faiths. Leaders can also take advantage of the general reluctance to take on responsibility and accountability. By being willing to take on those burdens, a charismatic leader can amass a range of powers, including those that are in conflict, such as the power both to propose and approve acquisitions or to execute and account for securities transactions.

Knowledge and the sources provided Essay

Evacuation was both successful and unsuccessful. The Government did manage to secure its objectives of keeping children safe and keeping the war machine going without the threat of children being killed which was a successful aspect of evacuation. Although the conditions on the train were cramped and there was a lack of facilities, a vast amount of children were transported out of the cities quickly and efficiently. Most of the children who were evacuated also benefited from it although some did have bad experiences. However a major problem with evacuation was that a significant number of children either did not go or returned back to the danger-zones. Despite the government propaganda for instance the ‘How and Why’ pamphlet, which contributed to the efficient way in which children were evacuated many parents refused to allow their children to leave. In ‘Hope and Glory’ a mother agrees to evacuate her children but then becomes overcome with emotion and unable to part with her children. This was quite a common occurrence and some parents did not even consider evacuating their children due to preconceived ideas. Source E highlights this; the man being interviewed would not send his child away as he thought that † they can’t be looked after where they’re sending them†. This man, like many other citizens had preconceptions of the countryside such as â€Å"they’ve nothing there; they were starving there before the war† Many children who were evacuated returned home, some because they were unhappy and some because their parents did not see the need for them to remain there because of the ‘phoney war’ in which no bombs were dropped on cities. This meant that they would be back in danger zones, which was not a success from the government’s point of view. The actual transportation of the children was very well organised; the children were all registered in advance and were put onto the trains efficiently. Source A depicts evacuees walking to the station in London. This suggests that evacuation was well-ordered as all the children are walking in an orderly fashion; they are all smiling and a few are waving. This shows that the children were content in being evacuated. However one must take into account the fact that the source is a photograph hence it could have been staged. Source B contradicts this and suggests that evacuation was a nerve-racking experience for the children involved as they were â€Å"too afraid to talk†. The source also states that the children didn’t know where they were going; this is a negative factor as it would cause angst amongst the children and suggests disorganisation. As well as simply the organisation and official objectives behind evacuation; there are other aspects which one must consider. Many children gained a lot of new experiences and there were many long-term benefits. Some long-term benefits include broadened horizons of the children, increased understanding between classes and a raised awareness of urban poverty. Many country dwellers did not know how city children lived and evacuation was an opportunity for them to find out. Source C, an extract from ‘Carrie’s War’ by Nina Bowden highlights a misconception about evacuees as the child in the novel says † she thinks we’re poor children, too poor to afford slippers†. However this source is not really a primary source, as although it is based on reality, it is a fictitious novel. A lot of evacuees had positive experiences such as enjoying healthier, safer surroundings than the cities as well as developing a life-long love of the countryside. On the other hand some children were just treated like servants by their foster families or made to feel very unwelcome. These children experienced some of the negative factors of country life. Many of the foster families had negative experiences such as bad-mannered children or children with poor personal hygiene. These experiences are both positive and negative; although they were unpleasant, they resulted in raised awareness of urban children’s welfare. This raised awareness of poverty resulted in the introduction of the Welfare State Shortly after W. W. II. Many foster families and evacuees enjoyed the experience of evacuation and treasured memories of it for many years. The evacuees were predominantly grateful, Source D, a government advertisement suggests that the foster families were â€Å"doing a real service for the nation†; this evokes patriotism and causes people to come together and help each other, which is another positive outcome of evacuation. This advertisement encouraged people to take in evacuees thus making the arrangements easier and more orderly, increasing the successfulness of evacuation. When looking at all the evidence available to us it is clear that although evacuation was not a â€Å"great† success as there were a great deal of setbacks, such as the children who did not go and children who returned home it was quite successful as the government did secure the objective of reducing civilian casualties. Many other benefits were as a result of evacuation and it was an enlightening experience for all those concerned. There were a few negative effects for certain individuals but as a whole, this nation benefited from evacuation.

Nike and “King Consumer”

Popular culture, indeed, has always held athletes in high esteem, dating back to the days of the ancient Greeks and the first Olympiad events, thousands of years ago.   However, in recent decades, talented athletes in sports which had in the past been relegated to the upper class, such as tennis, are now embraced by the masses of all socioeconomic levels.   A case in point is the Russian tennis phenomenon Maria Sharapova.   Admittedly, she is an excellent tennis player, but there are countless other talented tennis players who have not gotten even a fraction of the media attention as has Sharapova. Taking a closer look at this pop culture frenzy, the adoration that has been showered upon Sharapova and many other athletes comes down to how our culture has influenced advertising (USA Today); more specifically, one can clearly argue that Sharapova and others grabbed their biggest share of fame once they began to commercially promote products such as Nike brand clothing and shoes, showing the power of advertising to focus the love of the masses on someone based on an image seen in commercials, as well as the ways that culture has influenced product brands. The Rise of Consumerism As was alluded to in the introduction of this paper, the common denominator in the rise of athletes to god-like status in society, and the growth of companies like Nike into multi billion dollar marketing machines, can all be attributed to the masses, leading to academic studies of consumers in such frequency that terms like consumerism have been coined to identify the analysis of the behavior and power of the consumer to dictate how the business world ultimately operates, what it offers to the public, and how the future of consumer goods will unfold. Experts in the study of consumerism have attributed the rise of consumerism itself to the global spread of what can best be described as material desire; in other words, the economic freedom that many parts of the world have been exposed to for the first time over the last quarter century or so has bred a new generation of consumers, who have the desire to possess consumer goods and finally have the financial means to buy them (Sussman).   Especially desirable are the â€Å"brand name† goods which consumers view as a symbol of affluence; the Nike â€Å"swoosh† symbol, for instance, is something that people consider a sign of success when it appears on their shoes or clothing. This, in itself, speaks volumes about the extent of consumerism with the use of a simple, yet telling example.   Because of the availability of foreign made, inexpensive clothing and shoes, it would make sense that if one merely wanted to keep warm or protect their feet, they would buy the least expensive, yet functional merchandise they could obtain; however, more often than not, consumers will pay much more than they have to for clothing items because of the presence of a Nike symbol or any of a score of others which have universal appeal.   In fairness to Nike and others, they do make products of sufficient quality and functionality, but also in fairness, one can find goods of similar, or even superior quality at lower prices, â€Å"sans swoosh† if you will.   The difference, once again, is the power of consumerism to dictate what one should wear on their bodies to be considered worthy in society. Catering to King Consumer When looking at the role of the consumer, it can fairly be said that we are really looking at â€Å"king† or â€Å"queen†, as marketing efforts target, and effectively reach, both genders.   In the case of Nike, the understated in fact speaks volumes; for example, the previously mentioned Maria Sharapova is presented by Nike as â€Å"just a tennis player† (Nike-United States).   In this case, what is not said actually screams out to the consumer.   The implication on the part of Nike is clear- their products hold the potential to bring out greatness, or to satisfy the highest needs of the most talented athletes like Sharapova.   This speaks volumes not only about the power of advertising, but also a bit about our culture. Culture’s Influence on Advertising The all-powerful consumer also wields a great deal of influence in terms of how companies like Nike advertise their products.   Going back to an example similar to the one in the previous section, Nike, in investing multiple millions of dollars in advertising, could purchase quite literally a ton of advertising year-round, but will spend the same amount for one quick television advertisement during the Super Bowl. The reason why is that the consumer dictates that for Nike and others, Super Bowl advertising is a command performance, much like attendance at a family dinner party to maintain harmony with one’s siblings.   This is indicative of both the power of the consumer to direct marketing strategy, and the power of the media to create powerful companies quite literally overnight in some cases (Kellner).   In the words of our old friends at Nike, consumerism and culture are tied together as such: â€Å"In a commercial culture that blends celebrity, product, and image, it is only natural that the sports shoe transnational Nike – as well as many other corporations – would purchase   star power to promote its products. Accordingly, I argue that the Nike connection calls attention to the extent to which media culture is transforming sports into a spectacle that sells the values, products, celebrities, and institutions of the media and consumer society† (Kellner, p. 64) . Culture is also a powerful ingredient in the consumerism mix; when one takes a look at the styles of clothing and shoes that Nike offers, as well as their advertising, it is clear that urban culture is a strong influence, leading to farm kids in Iowa, for example, wearing Nike gear, even though the closest they may have ever come to city life is seeing graffiti on a tractor trailer rolling through their town, on the way to somewhere else.   The point to be made is that popular culture is a driving force in marketing today. Conclusion In an image-obsessed society such as ours, material goods can, and do, create legendary, larger than life individuals, who in turn sell billions of dollars in products, and the cycle continues.   As a conclusion, perhaps the old saying is the best: â€Å"consumer is king†! Works Cited Kellner, Douglas. Media Spectacle. New York: Routledge, 2003. (Nike-United States  Ã‚   2007)Nike-United States. 2007. Nike, Inc.. 5 Mar. 2007 . Sussman, Charlotte. â€Å"Consumerism in World History: The Global Transformation of Desire.† The Historian 66.1 (2004): 211+. â€Å"Tennis Royalty Crowned by Prince.† USA Today (Society for the Advancement of Education) Nov. 2005: 78+.    Nike and â€Å"King Consumer† Popular culture, indeed, has always held athletes in high esteem, dating back to the days of the ancient Greeks and the first Olympiad events, thousands of years ago.   However, in recent decades, talented athletes in sports which had in the past been relegated to the upper class, such as tennis, are now embraced by the masses of all socioeconomic levels.   A case in point is the Russian tennis phenomenon Maria Sharapova.   Admittedly, she is an excellent tennis player, but there are countless other talented tennis players who have not gotten even a fraction of the media attention as has Sharapova. Taking a closer look at this pop culture frenzy, the adoration that has been showered upon Sharapova and many other athletes comes down to how our culture has influenced advertising (USA Today); more specifically, one can clearly argue that Sharapova and others grabbed their biggest share of fame once they began to commercially promote products such as Nike brand clothing and shoes, showing the power of advertising to focus the love of the masses on someone based on an image seen in commercials, as well as the ways that culture has influenced product brands. The Rise of Consumerism As was alluded to in the introduction of this paper, the common denominator in the rise of athletes to god-like status in society, and the growth of companies like Nike into multi billion dollar marketing machines, can all be attributed to the masses, leading to academic studies of consumers in such frequency that terms like consumerism have been coined to identify the analysis of the behavior and power of the consumer to dictate how the business world ultimately operates, what it offers to the public, and how the future of consumer goods will unfold. Experts in the study of consumerism have attributed the rise of consumerism itself to the global spread of what can best be described as material desire; in other words, the economic freedom that many parts of the world have been exposed to for the first time over the last quarter century or so has bred a new generation of consumers, who have the desire to possess consumer goods and finally have the financial means to buy them (Sussman).   Especially desirable are the â€Å"brand name† goods which consumers view as a symbol of affluence; the Nike â€Å"swoosh† symbol, for instance, is something that people consider a sign of success when it appears on their shoes or clothing. This, in itself, speaks volumes about the extent of consumerism with the use of a simple, yet telling example.   Because of the availability of foreign made, inexpensive clothing and shoes, it would make sense that if one merely wanted to keep warm or protect their feet, they would buy the least expensive, yet functional merchandise they could obtain; however, more often than not, consumers will pay much more than they have to for clothing items because of the presence of a Nike symbol or any of a score of others which have universal appeal. In fairness to Nike and others, they do make products of sufficient quality and functionality, but also in fairness, one can find goods of similar, or even superior quality at lower prices, â€Å"sans swoosh† if you will.   The difference, once again, is the power of consumerism to dictate what one should wear on their bodies to be considered worthy in society. Catering to King Consumer When looking at the role of the consumer, it can fairly be said that we are really looking at â€Å"king† or â€Å"queen†, as marketing efforts target, and effectively reach, both genders.   In the case of Nike, the understated in fact speaks volumes; for example, the previously mentioned Maria Sharapova is presented by Nike as â€Å"just a tennis player† (Nike-United States).   In this case, what is not said actually screams out to the consumer.   The implication on the part of Nike is clear- their products hold the potential to bring out greatness, or to satisfy the highest needs of the most talented athletes like Sharapova.   This speaks volumes not only about the power of advertising, but also a bit about our culture. Culture’s Influence on Advertising The all-powerful consumer also wields a great deal of influence in terms of how companies like Nike advertise their products.   Going back to an example similar to the one in the previous section, Nike, in investing multiple millions of dollars in advertising, could purchase quite literally a ton of advertising year-round, but will spend the same amount for one quick television advertisement during the Super Bowl. The reason why is that the consumer dictates that for Nike and others, Super Bowl advertising is a command performance, much like attendance at a family dinner party to maintain harmony with one’s siblings.   This is indicative of both the power of the consumer to direct marketing strategy, and the power of the media to create powerful companies quite literally overnight in some cases (Kellner).   In the words of our old friends at Nike, consumerism and culture are tied together as such: â€Å"In a commercial culture that blends celebrity, product, and image, it is only natural that the sports shoe transnational Nike – as well as many other corporations – would purchase   star power to promote its products. Accordingly, I argue that the Nike connection calls attention to the extent to which media culture is transforming sports into a spectacle that sells the values, products, celebrities, and institutions of the media and consumer society† (Kellner, p. 64) . Culture is also a powerful ingredient in the consumerism mix; when one takes a look at the styles of clothing and shoes that Nike offers, as well as their advertising, it is clear that urban culture is a strong influence, leading to farm kids in Iowa, for example, wearing Nike gear, even though the closest they may have ever come to city life is seeing graffiti on a tractor trailer rolling through their town, on the way to somewhere else.   The point to be made is that popular culture is a driving force in marketing today. Conclusion In an image-obsessed society such as ours, material goods can, and do, create legendary, larger than life individuals, who in turn sell billions of dollars in products, and the cycle continues.   As a conclusion, perhaps the old saying is the best: â€Å"consumer is king†! Works Cited Kellner, Douglas. Media Spectacle. New York: Routledge, 2003. (Nike-United States  Ã‚   2007)Nike-United States. 2007. Nike, Inc.. 5 Mar. 2007 . Sussman, Charlotte. â€Å"Consumerism in World History: The Global Transformation of Desire.† The Historian 66.1 (2004): 211+. â€Å"Tennis Royalty Crowned by Prince.† USA Today (Society for the Advancement of Education) Nov. 2005: 78+.